Obama plays the long game

BY THE end of January 2007 a total of 17 Republicans andDemocrats had already lined up to signal their White Houseaspirations. They included one Senator Barack Obama, but noincumbent candidate, term limits ruling out a George Bush thirdterm. This week, as President Obama launches his 20-month re-election campaign the field for 2012 is still sparse - only oneserious rival has yet declared himself formally, Republican ex-governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty.

Although he is unlikely to face a serious Democratic challenge,and so should not need to invest hugely in the primaries, Obama isplaying the long game by starting well ahead of the opposition in arace that may still cost more than $1 billion. He raised a record$745 million in 2007 and 2008, and this time will have to do better.A filing with the Federal Election Commission and establishment of acampaign HQ in Chicago will allow him to start fundraising and therebuilding of the vast grass roots, internet-based organisation thatwon him 2008.

At roughly 50 per cent in the polls Obama is already ahead of thefield, but his task is no mean one. Last time he won on the basis ofa huge turnout by minorities and under-30s, and a solid performanceamong the minority of white voters who backed his coalition. Pollsshow it will be more difficult to get minorities out to vote whileindependent voters have deserted him in their droves.

Obama in office has disappointed many of his early followers. Hismantra of change has given way to explaining the harsh choices ofgoverning. Since the mid-term loss of congressional majorities hehas tacked decisively to the centre to cut deals with Republicans onkey issues like allowing tax cuts for top earners to stay in place,while setting aside earlier initiatives on more divisive issues likeimmigration reform and climate change legislation. This may help torally the centrist middle ground but not the liberal base.

In an e-mail to supporters, Obama said his campaign would be aneffort "to protect the progress we've made - and make more", not thecatchiest or most inspiring of slogans. But the president can pointto progress on healthcare that has long bedevilled presidents ofboth parties, some upturn in the economy, Wall Street reform, andsuccess in winding down the Iraq war.

Obama's best hope, however, lies in the weakness of hisopposition. The Republican nomination contest remains wide open,deeply dreary, and unelectably right wing, with potential candidatesranging from property developer Donald Trump to Pawlenty, to formergovernors of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney,and of Alaska, Sarah Palin. Governors Mitch Daniels of Indiana andHaley Barbour of Mississippi have expressed interest, while thecongressional darling of the Tea Party, Representative MicheleBachmann (Minnesota) has hinted she may join the race. It all makesfor a highly divisive primary race with the party's reactionary rankand file calling the shots. Not surprisingly Obama aides say he isunlikely even to mention the name of a rival for months. Theprinciple is as old as politics: let them destroy themselves.